Introduction and effect of Windows 10
The humble PC had its heyday in the late nineties and 2000s, but with the advent of smartphones and latterly tablets, the shine has been taken off these corporate workhorses.
According to figures released by Gartner, global PC shipments decreased by 8.3% in the fourth quarter of 2015. For the whole of 2015, PC shipments totalled 288.7 million units, down by 8% on 2014. It would seem that not even the release of Windows 10 has stopped this downward trend.
Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner, noted that this is the fifth consecutive quarterly fall in global PC shipments. Sales have been flaccid for eight years now.
“Holiday sales did not boost the overall PC shipments, hinting at changes to consumers’ PC purchase behaviour. On the business side, Windows 10 generally received positive reviews, but as expected, Windows 10 migration was minor in the fourth quarter as many organisations were just starting their testing period,” said Kitagawa.
Windows 10: More hindrance than help
It was originally thought that Windows 10, released last year, would help boost sales of new PCs, but that hasn’t happened. IDC’s figures for PC shipments (it counts the figures in a slightly different way to Gartner) saw shipments fall by 10.3%.
Loren Loverde, vice president of Worldwide Tracker Forecasting and PC research at IDC, said the option to upgrade to the new OS meant that some users were postponing an upgrade “a little, but not indefinitely”.
“Some consumers will use a free OS upgrade to delay a new PC purchase and test the transition to Windows 10. However, the experience of those customers may serve to highlight what they are missing by stretching the life of an older PC, and we expect they will ultimately purchase a new device,” she said.
Niche player
With the figures not looking too good, we have to ask ourselves is the PC dead or is it moving into a new niche?
Darren Grasby, president of EMEA and Global Channel Sales at AMD, says that the proliferation of mobile and tablet devices has, obviously, impacted the PC market, but at nearly 300 million annual unit shipments the PC is “far from dead”.
“I believe we will see PCs and laptops playing an important role in the years to come and we are excited about the technologies and products we have planned,” he says.
Grasby adds that when you look more closely at the numbers by hardware types and segments, you’ll see that there are some bright spots.
“In the next year, we are likely to see increased refresh cycles of PCs and laptops in the commercial space driven by adoption of the Windows 10 operating system. Also, we expect virtual reality to create a strong appetite for more powerful graphics and immersive gaming experiences in the PC space.”
A post-PC world?
Post-PC? Don’t believe it…
According to Neil Bramley, B2B PC business unit director of Northern Europe at Toshiba, while recent figures might suggest PC sales are in (he would argue marginal) decline, he doesn’t believe businesses are entering a post-PC era.
“The traditional PC market is simply evolving, with businesses diversifying their IT offering to account for varied employee needs and technological developments – whether this is the introduction of new form factors such as hybrids or the emergence of factors like the cloud,” Bramley says.
He adds that mobility is obviously one of the driving forces behind this evolution, with Gartner predicting that the ultra-mobile premium device market will be the catalyst for growth in this market over the next few years.
Bramley notes: “But this is also being compounded by Generation Z entering the workplace, bringing even more devices into the office which they expect to use for accessing company data seamlessly and consistently, wherever they are.”
It is this combination of factors that is pushing businesses to store greater levels of intelligence in the cloud, because this allows IT managers to offer more flexible and secure access to data.
“As a result, the role hardware plays for staff accessing business intelligence is shifting, with PCs now acting as the gateway to this information rather than the traditional hub many have been accustomed to,” says Bramley.
Going up in the world
The PC is moving towards the higher-end of the market, and it’s in this area that Grasby says there is room for innovation. “In particular in the specialty or custom PC space amongst high-end, power hungry users who demand more from their machines.”
He adds that overall, PCs and high-end small form devices remain an essential piece of technology for both consumers and businesses. “I think one thing that is really exciting is the potential for VR to drive innovation across the entire PC ecosystem.”
“The buzz around VR is refocusing the software industry’s attention and some of its brightest minds back on the PC platform,” says Graspy.
“As this trend continues, I think you are going to see increasingly more innovation within the PC space as software developers tap into VR as the most significant change in how we interact with technology since the introduction of the mouse and graphical user interface. And most importantly, high-performance PCs will remain the only device possible of truly pushing the limits of the experience for years to come.”
No uptick in sight
After years of decline, there is very little evidence to support any notion of a rebound in the market. Indeed most PC companies and chip makers now talk about a 5-8 year upgrade cycle, rather than a 2-3 year one.
There is a growing feeling within organisations and among consumers that their present PC is good enough for the job in hand. There is no longer a strong pull towards getting the latest and greatest anymore, as the improvement no longer appears that large.
The only way for PCs to maintain any relevance is to admit they have a niche in content creation – they have ceded the content consumption function to tablets and smartphones. To argue otherwise would be deluded.
Source: techradar.com